DIFFERENTIAL MODEL OF FLOOD PHENOMENA DEVELOPMENT
Keywords:mathematical modeling of differential equations, method of expert estimates, Kendell consistency criterion
In the work on the basis of long-term observations of the development of flood phenomena in the region, a mathematical model of the development of flood phenomena based on the apparatus of linear inhomogeneous ordinary systems is proposed. Such model allows us to estimate the level of flood waters, the ability of the environment to absorb water - namely the permeability of the soil, the level of greenery, hydraulic support, etc., the level of precipitation in the region, the effectiveness of funds allocated to measures and measures to combat floods/ Heterogeneities in the system of equations describe the precipitation regime in the region and the amount of funds allocated for flood control measures. The system is supplemented by appropriate initial conditions. The coefficients of the model are determined by the method of expert estimates using the criterion of Kendall's impartiality/ When constructing a computational scheme, the fourth-order Runge-Kutta method and the corresponding software for its implementation are used.The parametric identification of the model is carried out in order to select the coefficients of the model, which would ensure the adequacy of the model to the real system. All calculations were performed in dimensionless form. The results of modeling are given, the directions of further researches which will be devoted to introduction of model at the real enterprises and services which task is the prevention of occurrence of the flood phenomena, especially in a zone of possible flooding of objects of an oil and gas complex are defined.
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